Understanding Politics

Education

Education under Lula

1st term (2003–2006)

Adults' mean years of schooling went from 5.6 in 2002 to 6.3 in 2006, and public education spending from 3.8% to 4.9% of GDP. The government unified conditional transfers into Bolsa Família, created ProUni and the higher education assessment system, and proposed the Fundeb, approved at the end of the term.

This visualization is descriptive and does not show that a government caused the change. See the methodology.

What started

Cuts, withholdings and limits

Change in the series over the period

From the year before the start to the last year of the period, with an optional lag. Compare with Latin America and neighbors: if all moved together, the change is probably not a government's doing.

Absolute change in the series unit (p.p. = percentage points); relative change, in %, only where shown.

no lag

Indicator Window BrazilArgentinaChileColombiaMexicoLatin America & Caribbean
Government expenditure on education (% of GDP) % 2002–2006 +1.1 p.p.+0.1 p.p.−1.0 p.p.−0.4 p.p.+0.3 p.p.+0.0 p.p.
Mean years of schooling (UNDP) years 2002–2006 +0.7 yrs+0.8 yrs+0.3 yrs−0.2 yrs+0.9 yrsno data
Adult literacy rate (% of people aged 15 and over) % 2002–2006 no datano datano datano data+1.5 p.p.+1.2 p.p.
Research and development expenditure (% of GDP) % 2002–2006 −0.0 p.p.+0.1 p.p.no data+0.0 p.p.+0.0 p.p.+0.1 p.p.

1-year lag

Indicator Window BrazilArgentinaChileColombiaMexicoLatin America & Caribbean
Government expenditure on education (% of GDP) % 2003–2007 no data+0.9 p.p.−0.7 p.p.−0.2 p.p.−0.4 p.p.+0.5 p.p.
Mean years of schooling (UNDP) years 2003–2007 +0.7 yrs+0.4 yrs+0.2 yrs+0.2 yrs+0.7 yrsno data
Adult literacy rate (% of people aged 15 and over) % 2003–2007 no datano datano datano datano data+1.3 p.p.
Research and development expenditure (% of GDP) % 2003–2007 +0.1 p.p.+0.0 p.p.no data+0.0 p.p.+0.0 p.p.+0.1 p.p.

2-year lag

Indicator Window BrazilArgentinaChileColombiaMexicoLatin America & Caribbean
Government expenditure on education (% of GDP) % 2004–2008 +1.3 p.p.+1.4 p.p.+0.2 p.p.−0.1 p.p.+0.1 p.p.+0.9 p.p.
Mean years of schooling (UNDP) years 2004–2008 +0.7 yrs+0.4 yrs+0.4 yrs+0.3 yrs+0.7 yrsno data
Adult literacy rate (% of people aged 15 and over) % 2004–2008 +1.4 p.p.no datano data+0.6 p.p.+2.0 p.p.+1.3 p.p.
Research and development expenditure (% of GDP) % 2004–2008 +0.2 p.p.+0.1 p.p.no data+0.0 p.p.+0.1 p.p.+0.1 p.p.

Pace before and during the government

Yearly change in this window, against the same length immediately before. Talk of a change in pace only when the series moved differently before; even then it does not say why. If Latin America changed pace together, the cause is probably not the government.

Indicator Before During Latin America & Caribbean: before → during
Government expenditure on education (% of GDP) per year −0.25 p.p. (1998–2002) +0.28 p.p. (2002–2006) +0.15 p.p. → +0.01 p.p.
Mean years of schooling (UNDP) per year +0.17 yrs (1998–2002) +0.17 yrs (2002–2006) no data

Government expenditure on education (% of GDP)

%. Background bands: Brazil's presidents, not those of the chart's other geographies. Years with data: Brazil: 1995–2022 (25 years); Argentina: 1975–2023 (41 years); Chile: 1975–2022 (35 years); Colombia: 1979–2020 (29 years); Mexico: 1989–2022 (30 years).

Government expenditure on education (% of GDP)
Source: World Bank — World Development Indicators · Source version: 2026-10-08 · Collected on: 2026-11-01 · License: CC-BY-4.0
Download data (CSV) · View the code: collection code · chart.ts
View the data as a table
Year BrazilArgentinaChileColombiaMexico
1975 – 1.8 3.5 – –
1976 – 1.2 – – –
1977 – 1.7 – – –
1978 – 1.9 3.0 – –
1979 – 2.4 3.4 1.8 –
1980 – 2.6 4.1 1.7 –
1981 – – 4.8 2.6 –
1982 – 1.6 – – –
1983 – 1.6 – – –
1984 – 2.6 – 3.0 –
1985 – 1.4 – 2.7 –
1986 – 1.3 – – –
1987 – 1.3 2.8 – –
1989 – 1.0 – 2.7 2.3
1990 – 1.1 2.2 – 2.3
1991 – – – – 2.5
1992 – – – – 3.0
1993 – – 2.4 – –
1994 – – 2.5 – 3.5
1995 4.6 – 2.6 – 3.5
1996 – 3.7 2.8 – –
1997 – – 3.0 – –
1998 4.8 4.0 3.3 3.9 3.2
1999 3.8 4.5 3.7 4.4 3.4
2000 3.9 4.6 3.8 3.5 3.8
2001 3.8 4.8 – 3.7 4.0
2002 3.8 4.0 4.0 4.3 4.2
2003 – 3.5 3.9 4.3 4.8
2004 4.0 3.5 3.5 4.1 4.5
2005 4.5 3.9 3.3 4.0 4.6
2006 4.9 4.1 3.0 3.9 4.5
2007 5.0 4.5 3.2 4.1 4.5
2008 5.3 4.8 3.8 3.9 4.6
2009 5.5 5.5 4.3 4.8 4.9
2010 5.6 5.0 4.2 4.8 4.9
2011 5.7 5.3 4.1 4.5 4.9
2012 5.9 5.3 – 4.4 4.9
2013 5.8 5.4 4.5 4.9 4.5
2014 5.9 5.4 4.8 4.6 5.1
2015 6.2 5.8 4.9 4.5 5.1
2016 6.3 5.5 5.4 4.5 4.8
2017 6.3 5.5 5.4 4.5 4.4
2018 6.1 4.9 5.5 4.4 4.1
2019 6.0 4.8 5.6 4.5 –
2020 5.8 5.3 5.6 5.3 4.5
2021 5.5 4.7 5.0 – 4.2
2022 5.6 4.8 4.9 – 4.1
2023 – 5.0 – – –

† series break

Mean years of schooling (UNDP)

years. Background bands: Brazil's presidents, not those of the chart's other geographies. Years with data: all series: 1990–2023.

Mean years of schooling (UNDP)
Source: UNDP — Human Development Report · Source version: HDR 2025 · Collected on: 2026-10-26 · License: CC-BY-3.0-IGO
Download data (CSV) · View the code: collection code · chart.ts
View the data as a table
Year BrazilArgentinaChileColombiaMexico
1990 3.7 8.1 8.4 6.3 5.9
1991 3.8 8.2 8.5 6.4 6.0
1992 4.0 8.3 8.5 6.4 6.1
1993 4.1 8.3 8.6 6.5 6.2
1994 4.3 8.4 8.7 6.6 6.2
1995 4.4 8.5 8.8 6.6 6.3
1996 4.6 8.5 8.9 6.7 6.4
1997 4.8 8.6 8.9 6.7 6.4
1998 4.9 8.7 9.0 6.8 6.5
1999 5.1 8.7 9.1 6.8 6.6
2000 5.3 8.8 9.1 6.9 6.7
2001 5.4 8.9 9.3 6.9 6.8
2002 5.6 9.4 9.4 7.0 7.0
2003 5.8 9.9 9.6 7.0 7.1
2004 6.0 10.0 9.7 7.1 7.3
2005 6.2 10.1 9.7 7.3 7.5
2006 6.3 10.2 9.8 6.8 7.9
2007 6.5 10.3 9.8 7.2 7.9
2008 6.7 10.4 10.1 7.3 7.9
2009 6.8 10.5 10.0 7.3 8.1
2010 6.9 10.6 9.9 7.4 8.0
2011 7.0 10.7 9.5 7.5 8.3
2012 7.2 10.8 9.8 7.6 8.5
2013 7.3 10.9 10.0 7.8 8.4
2014 7.4 10.9 10.1 8.0 8.4
2015 7.5 10.9 10.3 8.1 8.6
2016 7.7 10.9 10.4 8.2 8.6
2017 7.8 11.0 10.6 8.4 8.7
2018 8.0 11.1 10.8 8.5 8.9
2019 8.1 11.1 10.9 8.6 9.1
2020 8.3 11.1 11.1 8.9 9.2
2021 8.4 11.2 11.3 9.0 9.3
2022 8.4 11.2 11.3 9.0 9.3
2023 8.4 11.2 11.3 9.0 9.3

† series break

Adult literacy rate (% of people aged 15 and over)

%. Background bands: Brazil's presidents, not those of the chart's other geographies. Years with data: Brazil: 1980–2024 (22 years); Argentina: 1980–2020 (4 years); Chile: 1982–2017 (7 years); Colombia: 1993–2024 (21 years); Mexico: 1980–2024 (25 years).

Adult literacy rate (% of people aged 15 and over)
Source: World Bank — World Development Indicators · Source version: 2026-10-08 · Collected on: 2026-11-01 · License: CC-BY-4.0
Download data (CSV) · View the code: collection code · chart.ts
View the data as a table
Year BrazilArgentinaChileColombiaMexico
1980 74.6 93.9 – – 83.0
1982 – – 91.1 – –
1990 – – – – 87.6
1991 – 96.0 – – –
1992 – – 94.3 – –
1993 – – – 91.1 –
1996 – – – 91.2 –
2000 86.4 – – – 90.5
2001 – 97.2 – – –
2002 – – 95.7 – 90.3
2004 88.6 – – 92.8 90.9
2005 – – – 92.8 91.6
2006 89.6 – – 92.3 91.7
2007 90.0 – – 92.7 92.8
2008 90.0 – – 93.4 92.9
2009 90.3 – – 93.2 93.4
2010 90.4 – – 93.4 93.1
2011 91.4 – 96.7 93.6 93.5
2012 91.3 – – – 94.2
2013 91.5 – 96.3 – 94.0
2014 91.7 – – 94.2 94.6
2015 92.1 – 96.9 94.3 94.5
2016 92.8 – – 94.7 94.9
2017 93.1 – 96.4 94.9 95.0
2018 93.2 – – 95.1 95.4
2019 93.9 – – 95.3 95.4
2020 94.7 99.1 – 95.6 95.3
2021 94.8 – – 95.7 95.7
2022 94.4 – – 95.3 95.1
2023 94.6 – – 95.5 95.8
2024 94.7 – – 95.3 95.6

† series break

Research and development expenditure (% of GDP)

%. Background bands: Brazil's presidents, not those of the chart's other geographies. Years with data: Brazil: 2000–2023; Argentina: 1996–2023; Chile: 2007–2022; Colombia: 2000–2020; Mexico: 1996–2024.

Research and development expenditure (% of GDP)
Source: World Bank — World Development Indicators · Source version: 2026-10-08 · Collected on: 2026-11-01 · License: CC-BY-4.0
Download data (CSV) · View the code: collection code · chart.ts
View the data as a table
Year BrazilArgentinaChileColombiaMexico
1996 – 0.4 – – 0.2
1997 – 0.4 – – 0.3
1998 – 0.4 – – 0.3
1999 – 0.5 – – 0.3
2000 1.0 0.4 – 0.1 0.3
2001 1.1 0.4 – 0.1 0.3
2002 1.0 0.4 – 0.2 0.3
2003 1.0 0.4 – 0.2 0.4
2004 1.0 0.4 – 0.2 0.4
2005 1.0 0.4 – 0.2 0.4
2006 1.0 0.5 – 0.2 0.4
2007 1.1 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.4
2008 1.1 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.4
2009 1.1 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.5
2010 1.2 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.5
2011 1.1 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.5
2012 1.1 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.4
2013 1.2 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.4
2014 1.3 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.4
2015 1.3 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.4
2016 1.2 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.4
2017 1.1 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.3
2018 1.2 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3
2019 1.2 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.3
2020 1.2 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.3
2021 1.1 0.5 0.4 – 0.3
2022 1.2 0.5 0.4 – 0.3
2023 1.2 0.6 – – 0.3
2024 – – – – 0.3

† series break

How to assess a government and its policies critically

Other factors that moved the same series

Stronger economic growth and falling poverty in the period affect enrollment and retention independently of specific education policies. Evaluations of Bolsa Família on school attendance exist, but with mixed results on learning.

Limitations

Sources

#NumberOrigin
1 5.6 undp_hdr.mys BRA 2002 · UNDP — Human Development Report · Source version HDR 2025 · Collected on 2026-10-26
2 6.3 undp_hdr.mys BRA 2006 · UNDP — Human Development Report · Source version HDR 2025 · Collected on 2026-10-26
3 3.8 wdi.se_xpd_totl_gd_zs BRA 2002 · World Bank — World Development Indicators · Source version 2026-10-08 · Collected on 2026-11-01
4 4.9 wdi.se_xpd_totl_gd_zs BRA 2006 · World Bank — World Development Indicators · Source version 2026-10-08 · Collected on 2026-11-01